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2032 Forecast

base-case trajectory

A $13.4B gain over seven years, driven by premiumisation and recycled-content price pull, not volume (which grows ~1%/yr).

Buyer Power Score

supplier-favoured (−5…+5)

Concentrated trade houses, weather-exposed upstream and limited in-season fibre substitution keep the tilt with suppliers.

Global Trade Flow

43.8M bales traded

China is now the largest single importer (~7-9M bales/yr); combined Asia takes ~75% of cross-border flow.

Production Base

480-lb bales, 2025/26

Global lint output for 2025/26 (USDA); the physical supply base behind traded value, growing ~1%/yr while value compounds 3.4%.