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El Nino Procurement Monitor
Where global supply tightens, how far prices move, and what buyers should do before the event peaks. Status and prices read live from NOAA and the World Bank. The assessment below them carries the date of the edition it was written for.
StatusLive
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, read 5 hours ago.
This event against its analogs
ONI from two seasons before each event crossed +0.5, aligned on the crossing. The current event is drawn heavy.
Strongest events on record
By peak ONI, completed events only.
| Event | Peak ONI | Peaked | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-16Very strong | +2.59 | NDJ 2015 | 20 |
| 1997-98Very strong | +2.37 | NDJ 1997 | 12 |
| 1982-83Very strong | +2.14 | DJF 1983 | 14 |
| 2023-24Strong | +1.99 | NDJ 2023 | 11 |
| 1972-73Strong | +1.84 | OND 1972 | 10 |
| 1965-66Strong | +1.82 | OND 1965 | 10 |
| 2026-27running | +1.80 | JJA 2026, so far | 3 |
How the event is defined
Why a number crossing a line counts as an event at all.
An El Nino is declared when the ONI, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region averaged over three months, holds at or above +0.5 degrees for five consecutive overlapping seasons. That five-season rule is why the weekly figure at the top of this page moves well ahead of the official one: weekly readings are noisy, and the definition is built to ignore a warm fortnight.
Bands follow the CPC convention: weak from 0.5, moderate from 1.0, strong from 1.5, very strong from 2.0. The event list on the left is derived from the index itself on every refresh rather than transcribed, so it stays correct as the current event develops.
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