El Niño
Monitor
Track the live ENSO phase from NOAA, how each exposed commodity has moved since the event was declared, and the procurement read-out: where supply tightens, how far prices travel, and what buyers should do before the peak.
StatusLive
NOAA Climate Prediction Center, read 18 hours ago.
This event against its analogs
ONI from two seasons before each event crossed +0.5, aligned on the crossing. The current event is drawn heavy.
- This event
- Reading at +3
- Where it peaked
- 2026-272026-27, live+2.16 now, at +3
- 1997-981997-98+1.79 at +3Peak +2.37, 4 seasons later
- 2023-242023-24+1.50 at +3Peak +1.99, 3 seasons later
- 1982-831982-83+0.99 at +3Peak +2.14, 5 seasons later
- 2014-162014-16+0.73 at +3Peak +2.59, 11 seasons later
Strongest events on record
By peak ONI, completed events only.
| Event | Peak ONI | Peaked | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-16Very strong | +2.59 | NDJ 2015 | 20 |
| 1997-98Very strong | +2.37 | NDJ 1997 | 12 |
| 1982-83Very strong | +2.14 | DJF 1983 | 14 |
| 2023-24Strong | +1.99 | NDJ 2023 | 11 |
| 1972-73Strong | +1.84 | OND 1972 | 10 |
| 1965-66Strong | +1.82 | OND 1965 | 10 |
| 2026-27running | +2.16 | JAS 2026, so far | 4 |
How the event is defined
Why a number crossing a line counts as an event at all.
An El Nino is declared when the ONI, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region averaged over three months, holds at or above +0.5 degrees for five consecutive overlapping seasons. That five-season rule is why the weekly figure at the top of this page moves well ahead of the official one: weekly readings are noisy, and the definition is built to ignore a warm fortnight.
Bands follow the CPC convention: weak from 0.5, moderate from 1.0, strong from 1.5, very strong from 2.0. The event list on the left is derived from the index itself on every refresh rather than transcribed, so it stays correct as the current event develops.
Create a free account to read sections 2-10 - prices, regional status, the macro wave and the procurement roadmap.