US CAFE credit trading termination published on September 30, 2026
Automotive Composites Market 2025 to 2032: Lightweighting, NEV Demand and the Carbon Fiber InflectionSeverity
Medium
Likelihood
High
Spend exposed
–
Confidence
85%
$
- Severity: how big the impact would be if this plays out.
- Likelihood: how probable the engine judges it is to happen or persist.
- Spend exposed: the share of your annual category spend this flags.
What changed
A US rule published on September 30, 2026 ends Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) credit trading starting from model year 2028. The policy change comes into effect on November 30, 2026. This shift shifts automaker compliance strategies directly toward physical vehicle weight reduction rather than regulatory credit purchases.
Recommended actions
11
Evaluate long-term lightweighting supply contracts to mitigate projected OEM structural demand shifts
Ending credit trading will force OEMs to rely on direct vehicle mass optimization, driving higher volume adoption of composite components by model year 2028.