August 2026: Severe global supply tightness and projected Q3 price spike to $3,800/ton

Analysts project a primary aluminium structural deficit of 1.7 million metric tons for 2026, exacerbated by China's 45 mmt capacity ceiling and Middle East geopolitical disruptions. LME aluminium prices are forecasted to surge to $3,800/ton in Q3 2026 before easing to $3,700/ton in Q4 2026. North American distributors are reporting severe supply tightness, with mills refusing spot orders ("no-quoting"), extending lead times, and implementing double-digit price hikes driven by high Midwest premiums.