Zinc Ingot: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global zinc ingot market sits at approximately USD 38 billion in 2025 (base year) across roughly 13.5-14.0 million metric tonnes of refined metal supply. Substitution economics for corrosion protection in steel remain poor; roughly 60% of demand still flows into galvanizing, anchored by Chinese construction and infrastructure spending and by automotive light-weighting programmes in Europe and North America. LME three-month zinc held near USD 2,750-2,800/MT through Q2 2026 with the deepest concentrate treatment-charge spot reading in years, signalling a tight upstream market. > **Analyst Take.** Our view: the consensus 4-5% CAGR is generous for an LME-traded commodity feedstock with a 60% concentrated end use and a Chinese consumer hub running near cyclical lows. We anchor 3.1% base-case growth and would push back on the bull case because (1) Chinese real-estate completions are still

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