US SRW wheat prices demonstrated substantial appreciation from 2005 through 2026, rising from 135.7 $/mt to 240.2 $/mt for a total increase of 104.4 $/mt. This represents cumulative growth of 77.0% over 21 years, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 2.8%. The price history exhibits notable volatility, with the low point occurring at the 2005 starting value of 135.7 $/mt and the peak reaching 381.9 $/mt in 2022. The most significant single movement within the dataset occurred between 2006 and 2007, when prices surged 50.1% from 159.0 $/mt to 238.6 $/mt. This dramatic swing highlights the commodity's susceptibility to rapid fluctuations, particularly in earlier periods of the observed timeframe.
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight forecasts US SRW wheat prices will decline from current levels through 2030, diverging from consensus which expects sustained elevated prices. Our bearish view is driven by increasing global production capacity, particularly in the Black Sea region, improving weather patterns after recent droughts, and growing competition from alternative grains in livestock feed rations. The historical range shows prices exceeding $380 only once (2022), suggesting current levels are structurally elevated without extreme weather. Despite inflationary pressures, efficiency gains in farming and transportation are offsetting cost pressures, while substitution effects in food manufacturing are gaining traction. The 10-year average of $223.7 supports a return to more normalized levels absent supply shocks.
Data table
| Year | $/mt |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 135.7 |
| 2006 | 159.0 |
| 2007 | 238.6 |
| 2008 | 271.5 |
| 2009 | 186.0 |
| 2010 | 229.7 |
| 2011 | 285.9 |
| 2012 | 295.4 |
| 2013 | 276.7 |
| 2014 | 245.2 |
| 2015 | 206.4 |
| 2016 | 176.3 |
| 2017 | 178.2 |
| 2018 | 203.9 |
| 2019 | 211.3 |
| 2020 | 227.7 |
| 2021 | 281.7 |
| 2022 | 381.9 |
| 2023 | 257.7 |
| 2024 | 230.9 |
| 2025 | 219.6 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.