Wheat - Soft Red Winter: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat market sits at an estimated USD 9.5 billion in 2025 (base year), with our central-case 7-year forward CAGR of 1.5% reaching approximately USD 10.5 billion by 2032. SRW accounts for roughly 15% of total U.S. wheat production by volume and serves as the primary U.S. wheat class for cookies, crackers, cakes, and flatbreads due to its low-protein (8.5-10.5%), soft-endosperm profile. The category sits in a balanced supply position heading into 2026, with U.S. ending stocks projected up 10% year-on-year and CBOT SRW futures rallying from below USD 5.00/bushel in October 2025 to nearly USD 6.90/bushel by May 2026 before easing to approximately USD 5.85 by mid-June. > **Analyst Take.** Our view: the 2026 SRW production decline is the single most under-priced inflection in the category. Consensus assumes the 10% year-on-year ending-stock cushion will absorb th

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