The VIX Volatility Index has demonstrated moderate upward momentum over its two decade tracking period, rising from a baseline of 12.8 index in 2005 to 18.9 index in 2025. This trajectory represents a total change of 6.12 index, equating to a compound annual growth rate of 2.0 percent. The index has experienced considerable fluctuation within this overall growth, reaching a historical low of 11.1 index in 2017 while peaking at 32.7 index during the 2008 financial crisis. The most dramatic single year movement occurred between 2019 and 2020, when the index surged 90.1 percent from 15.4 index to 29.3 index. This extraordinary volatility spike underscores the index sensitivity to systemic market stress events despite the relatively measured long term expansion rate.
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
The Claight forecast reverts vix volatility index toward its 10-year average of 16.745index using gradual mean reversion (25% per year), a neutral baseline for a cyclical series. Rates and inflation are driven by monetary policy, growth and the labour market; this is a baseline, not a policy call.
Data table
| Year | index |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 12.8 |
| 2006 | 12.8 |
| 2007 | 17.5 |
| 2008 | 32.7 |
| 2009 | 31.5 |
| 2010 | 22.5 |
| 2011 | 24.2 |
| 2012 | 17.8 |
| 2013 | 14.2 |
| 2014 | 14.2 |
| 2015 | 16.7 |
| 2016 | 15.8 |
| 2017 | 11.1 |
| 2018 | 16.6 |
| 2019 | 15.4 |
| 2020 | 29.3 |
| 2021 | 19.7 |
| 2022 | 25.6 |
| 2023 | 16.8 |
| 2024 | 15.6 |
| 2025 | 18.9 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: Free with attribution. Claight analysis based on this data.