Vegetable Oils - Olive: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global olive oil market (HS 1509) stands at approximately USD 14.2 billion in 2025 (base year), growing at a 3.1% CAGR through 2032 to reach roughly USD 17.6 billion. The market has emerged from a multi-year weather shock that compressed Mediterranean output between 2022 and 2024; the 2024/25 crop year delivered a record 3.5 million tonnes of global production, normalising spot prices from the EUR 5,000/MT peak of November 2025 down to the EUR 4,300-4,400/MT range by early 2026. Feedstock-anchored cost structures, with raw olives absorbing 62% of ex-works cost at the reference USD 8,200/MT SKU, leave procurement teams exposed to harvest volatility, regulatory cost inflation from PPWR and EU 2022/1616 recycled-content mandates, and ongoing trade-defence friction under Section 301 List 3 on Chinese-origin product. The Buyer Power Score is -2.4, supplier-favoring, reflecting concentrate

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