FX · JPY

US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

FX · JPY · annual average, 2005-2025 · forecast to 2030

Now (2026-07-13)
162.1 JPY
Avg 2025
149.7
Change 2005-2025
+36%
CAGR
1.5%
High (2024)
151.4
Latest price162.1JPYLIVEas of 2026-07-13 · updated 14 Jul 2026, 12:00 IST
HistoryWorld Bank forecastClaight forecastLatest (2026-07-13)
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Periodto

The USD/JPY exchange rate has experienced a notable upward trajectory over the past two decades, rising from 110.2 JPY in 2005 to 149.7 JPY in 2025. This represents a total increase of 39.5 JPY, equivalent to 35.8 percent growth over the twenty year period. The compound annual growth rate stands at 1.5 percent, reflecting steady depreciation of the yen against the dollar over the long term. Market volatility has been significant, with the exchange rate fluctuating between a low of 79.7 JPY in 2011 and a high of 151.4 JPY in 2024. The most dramatic movement occurred between 2012 and 2013, when the rate surged 22.4 percent from 79.8 JPY to 97.6 JPY. This largest single move highlights periods of substantial volatility within the broader trend of yen depreciation.

What This Tracks

USD/JPY is a currency pair that compares the US dollar against the Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market. A reading of 162.14 means one US dollar can be exchanged for roughly 162 Japanese yen. It is quoted 24 hours a day across global trading centers and is a major benchmark for international finance.

  • Pair is quoted as the price of one USD in JPY
  • One of the most liquid currency pairs globally
  • Often used by importers, exporters, and investors as a reference rate

What Drives It

The dominant driver is the gap between US and Japanese interest rates, which influences where global investors park capital. When US Treasury yields rise faster than Japanese yields, dollars tend to flow into US assets, strengthening the dollar against the yen. Safe-haven demand during global uncertainty also historically supports the yen, while Japan's large current account surplus and net creditor position give the currency a structural footing.

  • Differential between US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy rates
  • Safe-haven flows tied to global risk sentiment
  • Trade balances, capital flows, and yield differentials on government bonds

Recent Trends

Over the past several years USD/JPY has trended sharply higher, moving from around 110 in 2021 to levels above 150 in recent sessions. The move reflects a steeper US rate cycle and a Bank of Japan that long maintained ultra-loose policy before beginning a gradual normalization. Periodic intervention rhetoric and actual dollar-selling operations by Japanese authorities have at times capped rapid yen weakness.

  • Multi-year appreciation of the dollar from roughly 110 to above 160 yen
  • Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates and began policy normalization
  • Japanese authorities have intervened verbally and through dollar sales to support the yen

Supply and Demand

Demand for dollars comes from Japanese buyers of US assets, energy importers priced in dollars, and carry-trade participants borrowing cheaply in yen. Supply of dollars in the yen market increases when US investors buy Japanese stocks and bonds, when Japan repatriates export earnings, or when foreign-exchange reserves are rebalanced. The balance of these flows, amplified by leverage in derivatives markets, drives short-term price moves.

  • Carry trades add demand for high-yielding dollars funded by cheap yen
  • Japan's energy and food imports create persistent dollar demand
  • Reserve managers and large exporters periodically supply dollars when repatriating earnings

Outlook

The outlook for USD/JPY hinges on how quickly the Bank of Japan continues to raise rates relative to the trajectory of US monetary policy. A narrowing of the US-Japan rate gap tends to support the yen, while sticky US inflation or renewed risk aversion can keep the dollar bid. Fiscal dynamics, energy prices, and intervention risk remain additional swing factors for the pair.

  • Further Bank of Japan rate hikes could narrow the rate gap and lift the yen
  • Federal Reserve policy path and US Treasury yields are key swing variables
  • Verbal or actual intervention by Japanese authorities can cap extreme yen weakness
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Price outlook to 2030

Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW

2025: 149.7 · 2026: 142.0 · 2027: 135.9 · 2028: 131.0 · 2029: 127.0 · 2030: 123.9 JPY

The Claight forecast extends the pair toward its 10-year average of 111.334 JPY using gradual mean reversion (20% per year), a standard baseline for exchange rates that tend to revert toward long-run fair value. Rate paths are volatile and sensitive to interest-rate differentials, inflation and capital flows; this is a baseline, not a point prediction.

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Data table

YearJPY
2005110.2
2006116.3
2007117.8
2008103.4
200993.5
201087.7
201179.7
201279.8
201397.6
2014105.8
2015121.1
2016108.7
2017112.2
2018110.5
2019109.0
2020106.7
2021109.9
2022131.6
2023140.6
2024151.4
2025149.7

Source: European Central Bank (ECB) euro reference rates, accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: Free with attribution. Claight analysis based on this data.