The US Iron and Steel Producer Price Index recorded 314.4 index (1982=100) in 2025, reflecting substantial expansion from the 171.1 index (1982=100) baseline established in 2005. This trajectory represents a total change of 143.3 index (1982=100), equivalent to an 83.7% increase over 20 years with a compound annual growth rate of 3.1%. The index peaked at 380.5 index (1982=100) in 2022, marking the period high. The largest single move occurred between 2020 and 2021, surging by 71.3% from 208.3 index (1982=100) to 356.7 index (1982=100). This dramatic spike occurred because resurgent manufacturing and construction demand vastly outpaced domestic steel production, which had been severely curtailed by earlier pandemic shutdowns and supply chain disruptions.
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Connect to an analyst →Price outlook to 2030
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight anchors 2026 near current levels as Section 232 tariffs and steady non-residential demand absorb the early-year spike. From 2027 we diverge meaningfully below consensus, projecting a glide path back toward the 10-year mean of 273. Three drivers underpin the call. First, capacity: domestic EAF additions (around 6 million short tons of new flat-rolled nameplate) and restarted blast furnaces come online, pulling utilization toward 80% and easing pricing power. Second, demand destruction: automotive steel intensity per vehicle keeps declining as gauge lightening and aluminum substitution advance, while commercial construction plate demand plateaus. Third, import normalization: the Section 232 tariff structure is widely expected to erode via product exclusion creep and allied-nation quotas, restoring a 25-28% import share and capping mill list-price hikes. We do not see a recession-driven cliff because infrastructure and defense spending provide a floor, but the deflation impulse from substitution and supply outweighs it, leaving the PPI index 8-12% below sell-side median by 2030.
Data table
| Year | index (1982=100) |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 171.1 |
| 2006 | 186.5 |
| 2007 | 201.1 |
| 2008 | 246.4 |
| 2009 | 184.0 |
| 2010 | 223.5 |
| 2011 | 253.2 |
| 2012 | 240.7 |
| 2013 | 226.4 |
| 2014 | 232.1 |
| 2015 | 195.6 |
| 2016 | 187.0 |
| 2017 | 212.0 |
| 2018 | 237.8 |
| 2019 | 222.2 |
| 2020 | 208.3 |
| 2021 | 356.7 |
| 2022 | 380.5 |
| 2023 | 333.1 |
| 2024 | 309.1 |
| 2025 | 314.4 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index, accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: Public domain (U.S. government work). Claight analysis based on this data.