US Soybean Price

This indicator measures the per-bushel price of soybeans, a legume grown widely across the US Midwest and exported globally as whole beans, meal, and oil. The US Department of Agriculture, the Chicago Board of Trade, and various commodity data services publish price benchmarks based on cash and futures transactions. Because soybeans are a globally traded commodity, the US price is closely tied to international supply and demand, not just domestic conditions.

• •Measured in US dollars per bushel, with 1 bushel = 60 pounds (~27.2 kg).
• •Major reference points include CBOT soybean futures and USDA-reported cash prices in states like Iowa and Illinois.
• •Soybeans rank among the top US agricultural exports by value.

Prices respond to supply factors such as planted acreage, growing-season weather, and final yields, with droughts or excessive rain in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota often causing sharp moves. Demand drivers include soybean purchases by China, the world's largest importer, as well as domestic crush margins for meal used in livestock feed and oil used for cooking and renewable diesel. Trade policy, currency exchange rates, and the price of competing crops like corn also influence soybean values.

• •Weather and yield variability across the US Corn Belt can shift prices quickly.
• •Chinese import demand remains the single largest external driver.
• •Competing oilseed supplies from Brazil, Argentina, and other origins weigh on prices during their harvest seasons.

Soybean prices spiked to multi-year highs above $17/bu in 2022 amid tight global inventories, drought-related losses in South America, and disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine. Since then, prices have trended lower as US and Brazilian harvests recovered, rebuilding exportable supplies. The current level near $11.6/bu represents a meaningful pullback from those peaks but remains within the long-run range observed over the past decade.

• •2022: prices surged above $17/bu on tight global stocks.
• •2023-2024: prices eased toward the $11-13/bu range as Brazilian output expanded.
• •Early 2025: prices hovering near $11.6/bu amid favorable South American weather and steady US demand.

Supply depends on US planted area, which typically runs between 85 and 90 million acres, and on average yields that have trended higher with improved seed genetics and farming practices. On the demand side, the USDA's WASDE reports track crush volumes, export sales, and ending stocks, with ending stocks-to-use ratios serving as a key indicator of market tightness. A lower stocks-to-use ratio generally signals tighter supply and supports higher prices, while rising stocks tend to weigh on values.

• •US soybean production regularly exceeds 110 million metric tons per year in recent seasons.
• •China, the European Union, and Mexico are among the largest export destinations.
• •Ending stocks-to-use ratios below 5% are typically associated with bullish markets.

Looking ahead, prices are likely to be shaped by the size of the upcoming US harvest, the pace of Chinese buying, and the trajectory of South American production in Brazil and Argentina. Expansion of renewable diesel capacity in the US could add incremental demand for soybean oil, while macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and currency moves may influence export competitiveness. Weather developments through the growing season will remain the most important short-term catalyst.

• •Brazil is projected to remain the world's largest soybean producer, setting the global price tone early in the year.
• •Renewable diesel growth could add structural demand support for soybean oil.
• •US-China trade relations remain a key swing factor for export demand.