The US Producer Price Inflation (PPI, year-on-year) has undergone significant transformation over the past two decades, declining from 7.30 percent in 2005 to 2.25 percent in 2025. This represents a total change of negative 5.05 percentage points, equivalent to a decline of 69.2 percent over the twenty-year period. The compound annual growth
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
The Claight forecast reverts us producer price inflation (ppi, year on year) toward its 10-year average of 0.903% using gradual mean reversion (25% per year), a neutral baseline for a cyclical series. Rates and inflation are driven by monetary policy, growth and the labour market; this is a baseline, not a policy call.
Data table
| Year | % |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 7.30 |
| 2006 | 4.77 |
| 2007 | 4.80 |
| 2008 | 9.88 |
| 2009 | -8.51 |
| 2010 | 6.86 |
| 2011 | 8.84 |
| 2012 | 0.58 |
| 2013 | 0.62 |
| 2014 | 0.93 |
| 2015 | -7.24 |
| 2016 | -2.63 |
| 2017 | 4.41 |
| 2018 | 4.35 |
| 2019 | -1.03 |
| 2020 | -2.72 |
| 2021 | 17.0 |
| 2022 | 16.6 |
| 2023 | -3.18 |
| 2024 | -0.44 |
| 2025 | 2.25 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: Free with attribution. Claight analysis based on this data.