The United States Producer Price Index for final demand rose from 100.0 in 2009 to 149.2 in 2025, representing a total change of 49.3 over 16 years with a compound annual growth rate of 2.5%. The sharp increase in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand was primarily driven by surging energy and food costs compounded by persistent pandemic-era supply chain disruptions. The largest single movement occurred between 2021 and 2022, when the index climbed 9.5% from 126.7 to 138.8. This peak acceleration highlights how external shocks can dramatically affect producer pricing beyond the established long-term trend. The overall trajectory from the low of 100.0 in 2009 to the high of 149.2 in 2025 demonstrates persistent inflationary pressures in the production sector throughout this period.
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight's below-consensus call rests on three pillars specific to PPI Final Demand. First, goods inflation is rolling over: 2025's tariff-fueled surge concentrated in core goods is already fading, and goods PPI typically leads services PPI by 6-9 months, so the deceleration should propagate through 2026-2027. Second, the energy transition is reshaping producer costs: surging renewable capacity is pulling industrial electricity prices lower in many regions, while cheaper lithium-ion storage compresses peak-load pricing, a structural disinflationary weight on producer energy inputs that consensus underweights. Third, post-2023 capex in US manufacturing (CHIPS, IRA, reshoring) is now coming online, with semiconductor fabs, EV battery plants, and LNG facilities adding capacity through 2027-2028, exerting downward pressure on capital-equipment and intermediate goods PPI components. Services PPI provides a floor via shelter and wages, but goods disinflation dominates. We project final demand PPI moderating from 6.9% YoY in 2025 to roughly 3% by 2027 and settling near 1.5-2.0% by 2029-2030, below the 2.5%+ path implied by sticky-inflation consensus.
Data table
| Year | index (1982=100) |
|---|---|
| 2009 | 100.0 |
| 2010 | 101.8 |
| 2011 | 105.7 |
| 2012 | 107.7 |
| 2013 | 109.2 |
| 2014 | 110.9 |
| 2015 | 109.9 |
| 2016 | 110.4 |
| 2017 | 113.0 |
| 2018 | 116.2 |
| 2019 | 118.2 |
| 2020 | 118.4 |
| 2021 | 126.7 |
| 2022 | 138.8 |
| 2023 | 141.5 |
| 2024 | 144.9 |
| 2025 | 149.2 |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index, accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: Public domain (U.S. government work). Claight analysis based on this data.