The US inflation rate has experienced a 20.0% decline over the past two decades, dropping from 3.36% in 2005 to 2.69% in 2025. This represents a total change of -0.67% with a compound annual growth rate of -1.1%. The inflation trajectory displayed notable volatility during this period, reaching a low of -0.31% in 2009 and peaking at 8.00% in 2022. The most dramatic fluctuation occurred with a 939.3% increase from 0.12% in 2015 to 1.27% in 2016. Despite these substantial short-term movements, the long-term trend points toward gradual moderation in annual inflation rates since the mid-2000s.
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
The Claight forecast reverts us inflation rate (cpi, year on year) toward its 10-year average of 2.565% using gradual mean reversion (25% per year), a neutral baseline for a cyclical series. Rates and inflation are driven by monetary policy, growth and the labour market; this is a baseline, not a policy call.
Data table
| Year | % |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 3.36 |
| 2006 | 3.23 |
| 2007 | 2.87 |
| 2008 | 3.83 |
| 2009 | -0.31 |
| 2010 | 1.64 |
| 2011 | 3.14 |
| 2012 | 2.08 |
| 2013 | 1.47 |
| 2014 | 1.62 |
| 2015 | 0.12 |
| 2016 | 1.27 |
| 2017 | 2.13 |
| 2018 | 2.44 |
| 2019 | 1.81 |
| 2020 | 1.25 |
| 2021 | 4.68 |
| 2022 | 8.00 |
| 2023 | 4.15 |
| 2024 | 2.96 |
| 2025 | 2.69 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: Free with attribution. Claight analysis based on this data.