The United States hog price experienced significant volatility over the past two decades while maintaining a positive long-term trajectory. Beginning at 49.6 $/cwt in 2005, prices rose by 20.4 $/cwt to reach 70.0 $/cwt by 2025, representing a total increase of 41.1% over the period. This upward trend reflects a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%. The market demonstrated considerable fluctuation, with a low of 42.0 $/cwt in 2009 and a peak of 77.1 $/cwt in 2014. The most dramatic movement occurred between 2020 and 2021, when prices surged from 47.1 $/cwt to 68.5 $/cwt, marking the largest single move at 45.3%. This pattern of sustained growth punctuated by notable price swings characterizes the US hog market's recent history.
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
The Claight forecast extends us hog price toward its 10-year average of 57.812 $/cwt using partial mean reversion (22% per year). Farm prices are driven by acreage, yields, weather, feed costs and export demand; this is a baseline, not a point call.
Data table
| Year | $/cwt |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 49.6 |
| 2006 | 46.3 |
| 2007 | 46.7 |
| 2008 | 47.6 |
| 2009 | 42.0 |
| 2010 | 55.0 |
| 2011 | 66.5 |
| 2012 | 64.2 |
| 2013 | 67.2 |
| 2014 | 77.1 |
| 2015 | 53.5 |
| 2016 | 49.6 |
| 2017 | 53.6 |
| 2018 | 49.9 |
| 2019 | 51.9 |
| 2020 | 47.1 |
| 2021 | 68.5 |
| 2022 | 73.0 |
| 2023 | 62.0 |
| 2024 | 64.1 |
| 2025 | 70.0 |
Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, QuickStats, accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: Public domain (U.S. government work). Claight analysis based on this data.