US diesel prices have risen substantially over the two decades spanning 2005 to 2025, with the price per gallon climbing from 2.40 to 3.66. This represents a total increase of 1.26, or 52.6% across the full period, which corresponds to a compound annual growth rate of 2.1%. The market experienced considerable volatility during this timeframe, with the lowest recorded level occurring in 2016 at 2.31 and the peak reaching 5.00 in 2022. The most dramatic single-year movement emerged between 2021 and 2022, when prices surged 52.3% from 3.28 to 5.00. This sharp jump stands out as the largest single move in the historical dataset, highlighting the extreme price sensitivity that can occur within diesel markets during periods of significant market disruption or supply constraints.
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
The Claight forecast reverts us diesel price toward its 10-year average of 3.23 $/gal using gradual mean reversion (25% per year). Energy prices are volatile and driven by supply, OPEC policy, the energy transition and macro demand; this is a baseline, not a point call.
Data table
| Year | $/gal |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 2.40 |
| 2006 | 2.71 |
| 2007 | 2.88 |
| 2008 | 3.81 |
| 2009 | 2.46 |
| 2010 | 2.99 |
| 2011 | 3.85 |
| 2012 | 3.97 |
| 2013 | 3.92 |
| 2014 | 3.83 |
| 2015 | 2.71 |
| 2016 | 2.31 |
| 2017 | 2.65 |
| 2018 | 3.18 |
| 2019 | 3.06 |
| 2020 | 2.56 |
| 2021 | 3.28 |
| 2022 | 5.00 |
| 2023 | 4.21 |
| 2024 | 3.76 |
| 2025 | 3.66 |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: Public domain (U.S. government work). Claight analysis based on this data.