US Cattle Price

The US cattle price benchmark measures the dollar value per 100 pounds of live weight for slaughter-ready cattle sold in domestic markets. It reflects transactions between feedlots and meatpackers, as well as auction and direct trade prices reported by USDA agencies. A higher $/cwt figure signals stronger farm-gate revenue for producers and higher wholesale input costs for processors and retailers.

• •Quoted in dollars per hundredweight, where one cwt equals 100 pounds of live animal weight
• •Based on cash market sales and reported through USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data
• •Spans fed steers, heifers, and calves across regional markets including the Plains and Midwest

The most important drivers are cattle inventory, feed grain prices, pasture conditions, and consumer beef demand. Drought in major grazing states such as Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska reduces forage availability and forces herd liquidation, tightening future supply. Corn prices influence feedlot cost of gain, while beef demand is shaped by disposable income, restaurant sales, and competition from pork and poultry.

• •US cattle inventory cycles typically run 8 to 12 years, with current levels near multi-decade lows
• •Drought-induced herd liquidation during 2021-2023 reduced breeding stock and constrained future output
• •Export demand from Asia and North America adds meaningful volume to the US market

Cattle prices have risen sharply since 2023 as the US cattle herd contracted to its smallest size in decades. Record-high feeder and fed cattle prices in 2024 and early 2025 reflect tight supply, strong consumer beef demand, and elevated wholesale beef values. The current level near $513/cwt represents historic highs in nominal terms and follows multi-year drought-driven herd reductions across the Southern Plains.

• •Fed cattle prices climbed from roughly $170/cwt in 2020 to above $500/cwt by 2025
• •Beef cow inventory fell to approximately 28 million head, among the lowest counts since the 1950s
• •Wholesale beef and retail beef prices also reached record nominal highs during this period

Supply is constrained by the reduced breeding herd, with heifer retention and replacement heifer numbers still rebuilding. Strong consumer demand, particularly for higher-value cuts like ribeye and brisket, has kept prices firm despite higher retail costs. Imports of lean beef from countries such as Australia and Brazil partially offset domestic shortages but have not eliminated upward pressure on prices.

• •Domestic beef production has declined year-over-year as feedlot placements remain tight
• •Per capita beef consumption has fallen as retail prices rose, with consumers substituting chicken and pork
• •Cattle on feed numbers are well below the five-year average across major feeding states

Prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term as the cattle industry rebuilds breeding stock and feedlot supply stays limited. Herd rebuilding typically requires holding back heifers, which temporarily reduces slaughter numbers and supports prices for several additional years. Longer-term price direction depends on pasture recovery, consumer beef demand resilience, feed costs, and trade flows, with analysts generally expecting a gradual transition from extreme highs toward more typical levels by the end of the decade.

• •Herd rebuilding is underway but constrained by drought risk and high input costs
• •Retail beef prices are likely to remain near record levels through at least 2026
• •Price moderation could accelerate if consumer demand softens or imports expand significantly