The United States 30-year fixed mortgage rate began at 5.87 percent in 2005 and reached 6.59 percent in 2025, representing a total change of 0.73 percent over the twenty-year period. This translates to a 12.4 percent increase with a compound annual growth rate of 0.6 percent. The market experienced substantial volatility, with the low point of 2.96 percent occurring in 2021 and the peak of 6.81 percent recorded in 2023. The largest single movement was an 80.7 percent increase from 2.96 percent in 2021 to 5.34 percent in 2022. This dramatic surge illustrates the significant rate fluctuations that can occur within short timeframes despite the modest overall growth rate over two decades.
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
The Claight forecast reverts us 30-year fixed mortgage rate toward its 10-year average of 4.268% using gradual mean reversion (25% per year), a neutral baseline for a cyclical series. Rates and inflation are driven by monetary policy, growth and the labour market; this is a baseline, not a policy call.
Data table
| Year | % |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 5.87 |
| 2006 | 6.41 |
| 2007 | 6.34 |
| 2008 | 6.03 |
| 2009 | 5.04 |
| 2010 | 4.69 |
| 2011 | 4.45 |
| 2012 | 3.66 |
| 2013 | 3.98 |
| 2014 | 4.17 |
| 2015 | 3.85 |
| 2016 | 3.65 |
| 2017 | 3.99 |
| 2018 | 4.54 |
| 2019 | 3.94 |
| 2020 | 3.11 |
| 2021 | 2.96 |
| 2022 | 5.34 |
| 2023 | 6.81 |
| 2024 | 6.72 |
| 2025 | 6.59 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: Free with attribution. Claight analysis based on this data.