World · $/kg

Mombasa Tea Price

World · $/kg · annual average, 2005-2025 · forecast to 2030

Now (2026-06)
2.27 $/kg
Avg 2025
2.15
Change 2005-2025
+45%
CAGR
1.9%
High (2017)
2.97
Latest price2.27$/kgMONTHLYas of 2026-06 · updated 06 Jul 2026, 17:32 IST
HistoryWorld Bank forecastClaight forecastLatest (2026-06)
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Periodto

Mombasa tea prices demonstrated an upward trajectory from 2005 to 2026, with the unit price rising from 1.48 $/kg to 2.28 $/kg. This represents a total increase of 0.80 $/kg over 21 years, equivalent to an overall gain of 54.4%. The compound annual growth rate for the period averaged 2.1%, reflecting steady long-term appreciation. The market experienced significant volatility, with prices peaking at 2.97 $/kg in 2017, which remains the high point compared to the low of 1.48 $/kg at the start of the period. The most dramatic movement occurred between 2014 and 2015, when prices surged 45.0% from 2.04 $/kg to 2.96 $/kg. This single-year increase stands out as the largest move within the timeframe, highlighting periods of pronounced fluctuation alongside the broader trend of gradual price growth.

What This Tracks

The Mombasa tea price is a benchmark for medium to good-quality black teas produced in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo that pass through the Mombasa auction floor. Prices are set weekly through open-outcry bidding and published in both Kenyan shillings and US dollars per kilogram, with the dollar figure most commonly used for international comparisons. Because Kenya is one of the top three tea exporters globally, the Mombasa price functions as a regional reference rather than just a domestic indicator.

  • Set at the Mombasa Tea Auction, the largest black tea auction by volume outside India and Sri Lanka.
  • Covers Kenyan, Ugandan, Tanzanian, Rwandan, Burundian, and Congolese teas.
  • Reported weekly in USD/kg, with separate categories for primary grades and secondary grades.

What Drives It

Production volumes in Kenya and neighbouring countries are the dominant short-term driver, since weather shocks such as droughts or excessive rainfall can quickly tighten or flood supply. The Kenyan shilling's exchange rate against the dollar directly affects the USD-quoted price, while global demand from buyers in Egypt, Pakistan, the UK, the UAE, and Russia shapes the bid stack. Energy and fertilizer costs also feed into farm-gate economics, indirectly influencing auction valuations.

  • Rainfall patterns and temperatures across the East African highlands determine yields and quality.
  • A weaker Kenyan shilling inflates the dollar price without any change in local market fundamentals.
  • Input costs, particularly fertilizer and labour, influence supply responsiveness.

Recent Trends

After several years of relatively soft prices driven by ample global supply, the Mombasa auction has seen firmer levels in recent months as adverse weather in Kenya reduced output volumes and improved leaf quality. Average prices around 2.27 USD/kg reflect a recovery from the lows seen when oversupply and currency volatility weighed on the market. The rebound has also been supported by steady buying interest from traditional importers, even as some buyers remain cautious about broader macroeconomic conditions.

  • Prices have firmed from multi-year lows, supported by lower Kenyan production volumes.
  • Quality premiums for well-sorted primary grades have widened relative to secondary teas.
  • Demand from Egypt, Pakistan, and the Gulf has remained a consistent anchor for the market.

Supply and Demand

Supply is concentrated: Kenya alone typically produces the majority of the tea sold in Mombasa, with smaller but meaningful contributions from Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania. Demand is geographically diversified, with Egypt, Pakistan, the UK, the UAE, Sudan, and Russia historically among the largest buyers, and growing interest from African and Asian consumers as domestic intake expands. Because the auction clears in near-real time, any imbalance between crop arrivals and buyer appetite shows up quickly in price moves.

  • Kenya supplies the bulk of auction volumes, followed by Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Burundi, and the DRC.
  • Egypt, Pakistan, the UK, UAE, Sudan, and Russia are the dominant traditional buyers.
  • Emerging demand from local and regional African consumers is gradually reshaping the buyer base.

Outlook

Near-term price direction is likely to remain tied to weather outcomes in the Kenyan highlands and the trajectory of the Kenyan shilling against the dollar. Structural factors such as climate change, rising production costs, and intensifying competition from other origins like Sri Lanka and India could pressure long-run margins, while continued demand growth in emerging markets offers some offset. Auction prices are expected to stay sensitive to these competing forces, with the possibility of further firmness if the current supply tightness persists.

  • Weather and exchange-rate dynamics will likely remain the dominant short-term influences.
  • Climate adaptation and input costs are key structural challenges for producers.
  • Diversification into value-added and orthodox teas could help support long-term pricing power.
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Price outlook to 2030

Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW

2026: 2.27 · 2027: 2.15 · 2028: 2.08 · 2029: 1.98 · 2030: 1.92 $/kg

Claight forecasts a gradual decline in Mombasa tea prices through 2030 as new production capacity in key growing regions comes online while global demand softens. Recent investments in Kenya and neighboring countries will boost supply, with output potentially increasing by 3-4% annually through 2030. Simultaneously, substitution trends with other beverages like coffee and herbal infusions, particularly in younger demographics, will temper demand growth. Climate change initially boosted yields but now presents more variable weather patterns, creating short-term volatility without structural support. Unlike consensus views that expect a return to historical averages above $2.30/kg, we see persistent oversupply conditions with inventories likely to build modestly through the period. This view is consistent with the long-term downtrend observed since 2017.

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Data table

Year$/kg
20051.48
20061.95
20071.67
20082.22
20092.52
20102.56
20112.72
20122.88
20132.40
20142.04
20152.96
20162.42
20172.97
20182.58
20192.21
20202.01
20212.11
20222.45
20232.23
20242.18
20252.15

Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.