The global sugar price per kilogram has demonstrated notable volatility since 2005, starting at $0.22 and reaching $0.32 by 2026, representing a total increase of $0.11 (+48.2% over 21 years) with a compound annual growth rate of 1.9%. The market experienced its highest price point at $0.57 in 2011 before moderating, with the most significant single-year surge occurring between 2005 and 2006 when prices jumped by 50.5% from $0.22 to $0.33. This period of expansion reflects broader agricultural commodity trends, though prices have since stabilized at levels substantially above their initial baseline while maintaining consistent gradual growth over the two-decade timeframe.
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Connect to an analyst →Price outlook to 2030
World Bank forecast OFFICIAL
The World Bank projects sugar, world at 0.35 $/kg in 2026 and 0.34 in 2027.
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight forecasts sugar prices to rise above consensus from 2027-2030 due to structural diversion of sugarcane into biofuel production under Brazil's flex-fuel policies and expanding ethanol mandates, which will progressively tighten the sugar-to-ethanol production trade-off. While current levels are supported by balanced markets in 2026, we expect the biofuel pull to intensify, reducing available sugar supply for food and industrial use. This structural driver diverges from the World Bank's more conservative outlook that underestimates the impact of biofuel diversion. Additionally, climate volatility in key growing regions and persistent demand from emerging markets will further support prices. The trajectory reflects our view that the energy transition's impact on agriculture commodities will create a higher baseline for sugar compared to historical averages and current consensus projections.
Data table
| Year | $/kg |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 0.22 |
| 2006 | 0.33 |
| 2007 | 0.22 |
| 2008 | 0.28 |
| 2009 | 0.40 |
| 2010 | 0.47 |
| 2011 | 0.57 |
| 2012 | 0.47 |
| 2013 | 0.39 |
| 2014 | 0.37 |
| 2015 | 0.29 |
| 2016 | 0.40 |
| 2017 | 0.35 |
| 2018 | 0.28 |
| 2019 | 0.28 |
| 2020 | 0.28 |
| 2021 | 0.39 |
| 2022 | 0.41 |
| 2023 | 0.52 |
| 2024 | 0.45 |
| 2025 | 0.37 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.