Sugar prices in the United States have demonstrated substantial volatility over the past two decades, exhibiting an overall upward trajectory from 0.47 $/kg in 2005 to 0.75 $/kg in 2026. This represents a total increase of 0.28 $/kg, equivalent to 60.9 percent growth across the 21-year period, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.3 percent. The market experienced its lowest point at 0.45 $/kg in 2013 before reaching its peak at 0.90 $/kg in 2023. The most significant single-year movement occurred between 2009 and 2010, when prices surged by 44.5 percent from 0.55 $/kg to 0.79 $/kg. This pronounced jump highlights the commodity's susceptibility to abrupt shifts, even as the longer-term trend maintains a moderate but consistent rate of appreciation through the present day.
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Connect to an analyst →Price outlook to 2030
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight forecasts prices below consensus for 2027-2030, as structural supply improvements will outpace demand growth. Precision agriculture in major producing regions like Brazil is boosting yields beyond historical norms, while new beet sugar capacity in North America is coming online. Additionally, advancements in sugar crystallization technology are increasing efficiency, reducing production costs and expanding supply. These factors will create a global surplus that intensifies over the forecast period. We see 2026 as transitional, with prices settling around $0.77/kg, then declining as these capacity gains materialize. Our 2030 forecast of $0.66/kg is below consensus expectations, reflecting our view that technological advantages will be more persistent than anticipated in the consensus outlook.
Data table
| Year | $/kg |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 0.47 |
| 2006 | 0.49 |
| 2007 | 0.46 |
| 2008 | 0.47 |
| 2009 | 0.55 |
| 2010 | 0.79 |
| 2011 | 0.84 |
| 2012 | 0.64 |
| 2013 | 0.45 |
| 2014 | 0.53 |
| 2015 | 0.55 |
| 2016 | 0.61 |
| 2017 | 0.61 |
| 2018 | 0.56 |
| 2019 | 0.58 |
| 2020 | 0.59 |
| 2021 | 0.74 |
| 2022 | 0.79 |
| 2023 | 0.90 |
| 2024 | 0.84 |
| 2025 | 0.79 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.