Sorghum Price

Sorghum price measures the market value of sorghum grain, a drought-resistant cereal crop used predominantly as animal feed and increasingly for ethanol production. The $/mt metric reflects transactions on major commodity exchanges, where US futures contracts (priced in cents per bushel and converted to per-ton basis) serve as the global reference point. Unlike wheat or corn, sorghum trades on thinner volumes, making it more susceptible to sharp moves when major buyers or sellers enter the market.

• •Primary benchmark is US Gulf export prices, which anchor global quotations
• •China's import activity—driven by feed grain needs and trade policy—shifts the effective global clearing price
• •Price conversion: 1 bushel of sorghum ≈ 25.4 kg; current ~$4.80/bushel ≈ $189.5/mt

Sorghum prices move primarily in response to US crop conditions, as the United States produces roughly 60-70% of globally traded sorghum. Weather in major producing states—Kansas, Texas, Nebraska—directly influences supply expectations. Demand dynamics matter equally: Chinese purchases, driven by corn-sorghum price spreads and Beijing's tariff-rate quotas, can swing prices by tens of dollars per ton within weeks. Because sorghum competes with corn for acreage and feed usage, corn price movements typically pull sorghum along.

• •US acreage decisions hinge on corn-to-sorghum price ratios and input costs
• •Chinese demand varies with feed ingredient substitution economics and trade relations
• •USD strength inversely affects export competitiveness and thus prices

Sorghum prices have experienced notable volatility, reflecting shifts in US production outlooks and China demand cycles. The market saw elevated levels when Chinese buying surged in 2020-2021, then moderated as export sales normalized. Recent price action near $189.5/mt reflects a period of relatively balanced supply and demand, with US harvest completion easing initial supply pressure. The market has been trading in a range bounded by corn price ceilings above and feed wheat competition below.

• •Prices peaked above $300/mt during the 2021-2022 China-driven buying wave
• •2023-2024 saw a pullback as US production recovered and Chinese purchases slowed
• •Current levels represent a consolidation phase following early-season weather concerns

Global sorghum supply concentrates in the US, Australia, and Argentina, with US production typically ranging 6-10 million metric tons annually depending on growing conditions. Feed use accounts for roughly 30-35% of US domestic disappearance, while exports—dominated by China—represent 50-60%. The feed grains complex competes for finite livestock feed budgets, meaning sorghum demand rises when it undercuts corn sufficiently to trigger substitution in rations.

• •US exports are highly concentrated: China typically absorbs 70-80% of shipments
• •Australia and Argentina serve as secondary suppliers, filling gaps when US prices rise
• •Ethanol production has become a growing demand source, absorbing lower-quality grain

The sorghum market faces a fundamentally uncertain near-term outlook shaped by multiple crosscurrents. On the supply side, El Niño weather patterns could stress Southern Plains yields, while acreage competition with corn remains intense. On the demand side, Chinese buying pace will be the dominant price driver—if Beijing pivots back to sorghum over corn, prices could firm significantly. Geopolitical trade dynamics and shipping logistics also introduce downside risk to export flow assumptions. Markets will closely monitor spring planting intentions and summer weather for price direction.

• •US planting intentions reports (March) and growing-season conditions provide key signals
• •China's feed grain procurement strategy will dictate export demand strength
• •Corn price direction remains the primary technical anchor for sorghum valuation