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Scrap Steel: Market Size & Forecast 2026
The global scrap steel market sits at approximately USD 120 billion in 2025 (base year), held in a structurally tight balance between accelerating Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) capacity additions and a recycled-ferrous supply base that is growing more slowly than demand. Shredded steel scrap prices in the US Gulf market averaged roughly USD 385 per metric tonne in Q2 2026, while the EU shredded benchmark sat near EUR 340 per metric tonne and the Asia ex-factory reference around USD 360 per metric tonne over the same period. The CBAM definitive regime entered force on 1 January 2026, embedding carbon-cost internalisation directly into imported steel and scrap procurement decisions for EU-bound tonnes. > **Analyst Take.** The consensus 4.5% CAGR looks reasonable on the surface, but the composition is wrong. Roughly 70% of the growth comes from EAF capacity additions in emerging markets where
Official data · Claight AnalysisForecast
Market size and CAGR extracted from the published Claight report; figures match the report..
2025 base: $0.0bn2032 est: $0.0bn
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Connect to an analyst →Market size and forecast are Claight Analysis, informed by public research and industry data. Historical years before 2025 and all forecast years are Claight estimates at the stated CAGR. Retrieved 2026.