TSR20 Rubber Price

TSR20 refers to Technically Specified Rubber grade 20, a block of standardized natural rubber produced mainly from cup lump and field-grade latex coagulum rather than smoked sheets. It is the dominant natural rubber grade traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) and is widely used as the reference price for tire and industrial rubber buyers worldwide. Prices are quoted in U.S. cents or dollars per kilogram and typically reflect free-on-board values from Southeast Asian producing countries.

• •Standardized grade of natural rubber used as the global tire-industry benchmark
• •Traded actively on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) under the TSR20 futures contract
• •Quoted in U.S. dollars per kilogram, usually on FOB Southeast Asia terms

Three main forces move the TSR20 price: physical supply of natural rubber from Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Ivory Coast; demand from tire makers and general manufacturing; and the U.S. dollar exchange rate against producer-country currencies. Weather events, leaf diseases such as Pestalotiopsis, and labor shortages on plantations tend to tighten supply and lift prices. Macroeconomic conditions in China, the European Union, and the United States shape tire demand, while crude oil prices influence the competing synthetic rubber market.

• •Supply shocks from weather, disease, and labor conditions in producing countries
• •Tire and industrial demand linked to global manufacturing cycles
• •U.S. dollar strength versus the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Indonesian rupiah

After multi-year lows in the early 2020s, TSR20 prices climbed through 2024 as supply tightened and tire demand recovered. By late 2024 and into 2025, prices moved into the roughly 2.00 to 2.50 $/kg band, with occasional spikes tied to weather disruptions and shipping constraints. Compared with the 2020 trough near 1.00 $/kg, current levels represent a substantial recovery, although they remain below the 2011 peak above 6.00 $/kg. Price volatility has been elevated relative to most agricultural commodities because of concentrated supply and thin global stockpiles.

• •Upward trend since the 2020 low, with prices stabilizing near 2.25 $/kg
• •Higher volatility than many other agricultural commodities
• •Current level well below the 2011 record high but well above the 2020 floor

On the supply side, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia together account for roughly 60 to 70 percent of global natural rubber production, with Vietnam and several African producers making up most of the remainder. Production growth has been limited by aging trees, slow new planting, and rising labor costs, which has capped output growth at roughly 1 to 3 percent per year in recent seasons. On the demand side, tires consume about 70 percent of natural rubber output, so global vehicle production and replacement-tire sales are the dominant demand drivers, followed by industrial goods such as conveyor belts, gloves, and footwear.

• •Top producers are Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, with growing output from Vietnam and Africa
• •Tires account for roughly 70 percent of total natural rubber consumption
• •Supply growth constrained by aging plantations and slow replanting

Near-term prices are likely to stay supported by tight inventories and steady tire demand, especially if Chinese and Indian vehicle markets remain firm. Downside risks include weaker global manufacturing, faster adoption of synthetic substitutes if crude oil falls, and any sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar that reduces local-currency producer prices. Upside risks include renewed weather disruption in Southeast Asia, labor unrest in producing regions, or sustained recovery in commercial-vehicle production. Analysts generally expect TSR20 to remain in a 1.80 to 2.60 $/kg range over the next 12 months, with the 2.25 $/kg level representing a near middle of that band.

• •Inventories at major exchanges and producing countries remain relatively low
• •Substitution with synthetic rubber is the main medium-term price ceiling
• •Long-run demand growth is supported by rising global vehicle parc and replacement-tire needs