Vietnamese rice prices representing 5% of the world market began at 257.5 $/mt in 2005 and reached 361.1 $/mt by 2026, marking a total change of 103.6 $/mt or 40.2% over the 21 year period. This progression translates to a compound annual growth rate of 1.6%, indicating moderate long-term appreciation despite substantial interim volatility. The historical low occurred in 2005 at 257.5 $/mt, while 2008 recorded the all-time high of 567.1 $/mt. The most dramatic price movement unfolded between 2007 and 2008, when Vietnamese rice surged 83.9% from 308.4 $/mt to the 567.1 $/mt peak. This extraordinary single-year increase stands out against the otherwise measured trend characterized by 1.6% annualized growth, reflecting how occasional market disruptions can overshadow the underlying stability of Vietnamese rice pricing in the global context.
Get in touch and our analysts will be happy to help with custom market sizing, deeper segmentation, supplier detail or a bespoke study built for you.
Connect to an analyst →Price outlook to 2030
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight forecasts prices above consensus due to structural supply constraints in Vietnamese rice production. Yield growth is plateauing due to soil degradation and limited new arable land, while domestic demand remains resilient from population growth and shifting dietary preferences. Export capacity is constrained by infrastructure limitations in the Mekong Delta. Weather volatility is increasing, with both droughts and floods becoming more frequent, disrupting production cycles. Inventory levels remain tight globally, offering limited buffer against supply shocks. Additionally, Vietnam's export restrictions during domestic shortages, as seen in 2023, are likely to become more frequent as food security becomes a higher priority. Unlike consensus views that expect supply to keep pace with demand, we see these constraints creating a structural premium, especially as other major exporters face their own climate and policy challenges.
Data table
| Year | $/mt |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 257.5 |
| 2006 | 260.5 |
| 2007 | 308.4 |
| 2008 | 567.1 |
| 2009 | 425.3 |
| 2010 | 429.2 |
| 2011 | 513.6 |
| 2012 | 434.4 |
| 2013 | 392.4 |
| 2014 | 407.2 |
| 2015 | 351.8 |
| 2016 | 356.1 |
| 2017 | 363.3 |
| 2018 | 406.1 |
| 2019 | 351.9 |
| 2020 | 428.0 |
| 2021 | 446.4 |
| 2022 | 404.5 |
| 2023 | 523.7 |
| 2024 | 557.5 |
| 2025 | 380.0 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.