Thai Rice 5% Price

The indicator measures the free-on-board export price for Thai 5% broken white rice, a staple grade that accounts for a large share of Thailand's rice shipments. Broken grains are kernels that fractured during milling, and the 5% specification means that up to 5% of the bag may consist of these smaller pieces while the remainder is whole or near-whole milled rice. Quotes are typically denominated in U.S. dollars per metric ton to allow direct comparison with rice from other origins such as India, Vietnam, and Pakistan.

• •Represents the export price of Thai white rice with a maximum of 5% broken kernels.
• •Quoted in U.S. dollars per metric ton for international comparability.
• •Used as a benchmark for medium- and long-grain white rice trade across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

Thai harvest outcomes have an outsized effect because Thailand is consistently one of the world's top three rice exporters and tends to set the regional price floor or ceiling depending on its supply. Government interventions, including rice purchase schemes, stockpiling, and export rules, can either prop up or weigh on prices when they alter near-term availability. Currency volatility, especially moves in the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar, and competition from India and Vietnam round out the main drivers.

• •Annual and seasonal Thai rice output determines exportable surplus and base supply.
• •Thai government procurement, stockpiling, and export regulations influence short-term availability.
• •Exchange rate movements and export competition from India and Vietnam affect relative pricing.

After soaring above $600 per ton in 2022-2023, when India's export restrictions tightened global supply, Thai rice prices eased through 2024 as Indian shipments resumed and new Thai and Vietnamese crops entered the market. By late 2024 and through 2025, the benchmark has largely traded in the mid-$400s to low-$500s, reflecting more balanced fundamentals. The current level near $494 per ton is close to pre-2022 norms when adjusted for general inflation.

• •Peaked above $600 per metric ton in 2022-2023 following India's rice export curbs.
• •Eased through 2024 as Indian supply returned and competition intensified.
• •Currently hovering near $494 per metric ton, within the lower half of its recent multi-year range.

On the supply side, Thailand produces roughly 20 million tons of milled rice each year, with monsoon rainfall, irrigation water levels, and paddy acreage all influencing total output. Demand is anchored by large regular importers in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia, with Indonesia, the Philippines, China, and several African countries accounting for a meaningful share of Thai export volumes. Any major weather shock in a competing exporter or a sudden import surge, such as Philippines-style buffer-stock rebuilding, can quickly shift the balance.

• •Thailand typically produces around 20 million tons of milled rice annually.
• •Top destinations include Indonesia, the Philippines, China, and a range of African and Middle Eastern buyers.
• •Weather events, policy shifts, and stockpile rebuilding cycles in importing countries drive demand swings.

Most analysts expect Thai rice prices to stay in the $450 to $550 band over the near term unless a significant shock emerges, given ample regional supply and cautious import demand. Risks to that view include an El Niño-driven drought in Thailand or Vietnam, a return of Indian export restrictions, or renewed food-security buying from large importers. Currency moves in the Thai baht will also continue to translate dollar-denominated prices up or down without any change in underlying supply and demand.

• •Base case points to sideways trading near current levels barring major disruptions.
• •Key upside risks are drought in Southeast Asia or fresh Indian export curbs.
• •Key downside risks are softer Asian import demand and a strengthening Thai baht.