Thai rice prices demonstrated significant volatility over the observed period, rising from 265.4 $/mt in 2005 to a recent level of 416.3 $/mt in 2026. The total increase of 150.9 $/mt represents growth of 56.9% across 21 years, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 2.2%. The market experienced a notable peak in 2024 at 559.1 $/mt, well above the starting low of 265.4 $/mt in 2005. The most dramatic price movement occurred between 2007 and 2008, when values surged 73.5% from 306.5 $/mt to 531.8 $/mt. Despite this sharp upward movement and subsequent fluctuations, the longer term trend shows measured appreciation rather than explosive growth, as evidenced by the modest CAGR relative to the peak valuation reached in 2024.
What This Tracks
The indicator reflects the free-on-board or export-quoted price for Thai white rice containing up to 25% broken grains, which is one of several standardized grades used in international rice trade. Because Thailand has long been a top-three global rice exporter, its export prices are widely treated as a proxy for the broader Asian rice market. The figure is typically reported in US dollars per metric ton to allow comparison across origins and currencies.
- •Grade: Thai white rice, 25% brokens (medium quality).
- •Unit: US dollars per metric ton ($/mt).
- •Benchmark widely used by importers in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
What Drives It
Domestic Thai supply is shaped by monsoon rainfall, irrigation water availability from major reservoirs, and acreage decisions under government rice subsidy schemes. On the demand side, large importers such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Nigeria, and China set the pace, while currency moves matter because rice is invoiced in dollars but Thai farmers and millers operate in baht. Geopolitical events, including export restrictions in major producing countries like India, can quickly spill over into Thai quotations.
- •Weather: monsoon performance and reservoir levels during the main crop.
- •FX: a stronger Thai baht tends to lift USD-denominated export prices.
- •Policy: export bans, duties, or minimum export prices in competing origins.
Recent Trends
After surging to multi-year highs around 2022-2023 on tight supplies and India's export curbs, global rice prices have eased through 2024 and into 2025 as harvests recovered and inventories rebuilt. The Thai 25% benchmark has tracked that broader cooling, moving in a narrower band and reflecting more balanced fundamentals. The current level near 479 USD/mt is well below the 2023 peaks but above pre-2022 averages.
- •2022-2023: prices spiked due to El Niño fears and India's export restrictions.
- •2024-2025: gradual normalization as production in Asia improved.
- •Current level near 479 USD/mt indicates a softer, stable market.
Supply and Demand
On the supply side, Thailand typically produces 20-25 million tons of paddy rice per year, with output sensitive to rainfall and input costs such as fertilizer and fuel. Global supply is dominated by a handful of exporters, so any policy change in India, Vietnam, or Pakistan quickly shifts price formation. Demand is driven by population growth, dietary shifts in Africa and Asia, and food-security stockpiling by importing governments.
- •Top exporters: India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the United States.
- •Top importers: the Philippines, China, Nigeria, Indonesia, and the EU.
- •Stocks-to-use ratios in major exporters are a key forward indicator.
Outlook
Near-term direction depends on the 2025-2026 monsoon cycle in South and Southeast Asia, any new export curbs from major producers, and the trajectory of global food inflation. With Indian and Vietnamese supplies currently adequate, the Thai 25% benchmark is likely to remain range-bound absent a weather shock. Currency volatility and shipping costs could still generate short-lived spikes.
- •Watch El Niño/La Niña transitions and Asian monsoon forecasts.
- •Monitor Indian export policy as the dominant swing factor.
- •Range-bound outlook barring weather or policy shocks.
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight forecasts below consensus given new Thai rice production capacity coming online and global demand softening as consumers seek cheaper alternatives amid economic pressures. Thailand is expanding yields through new agricultural technologies, which will add supply just as global importers shift to more cost-effective grains. Historical averages show this market operates in multi-year cycles, and we are at the peak of a high-price period. Unlike consensus expecting continued supply constraints, we see normalization over 2027-2030 toward the 10-year average as new capacity addresses current tightness. Weather risks remain, but structural trends point to gradual price decline rather than continued strength.
Data table
| Year | $/mt |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 265.4 |
| 2006 | 277.1 |
| 2007 | 306.5 |
| 2008 | 531.8 |
| 2009 | 458.1 |
| 2010 | 441.5 |
| 2011 | 506.1 |
| 2012 | 543.8 |
| 2013 | 473.0 |
| 2014 | 382.2 |
| 2015 | 372.6 |
| 2016 | 385.3 |
| 2017 | 384.7 |
| 2018 | 408.1 |
| 2019 | 410.4 |
| 2020 | 481.8 |
| 2021 | 448.3 |
| 2022 | 429.7 |
| 2023 | 532.9 |
| 2024 | 559.1 |
| 2025 | 396.4 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.