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Vegetable Oils - Palm: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global palm oil market sits at approximately USD 73.5 billion in 2025 (base year) on a 4.2% CAGR through 2032, held in a structurally balanced to mildly tight state by Indonesia-Malaysia dominance, biodiesel feedstock demand, and a thickening regulatory stack that now stretches from USTR Section 301 to the EU Deforestation Regulation. > **Analyst Take.** Our view: the under-priced inflection is the regulatory stack, not the biodiesel mandate. EUDR enforcement timing and USDOC countervailing duty outcomes on Indonesian and Malaysian fatty acids will set the next 24-month cost trajectory for EU and US buyers more than the biodiesel tug-of-war that dominates consensus. Lock 12-month indexed cover now; resist fixed-price 2027 commitments until EUDR and CVD positions are confirmed. The 4.2% CAGR looks conservative against a 7%+ consensus scenario - we believe the structural ceiling from l

Market size · 2025
$73.5bn
CAGR · 2025–2030
4.2%
Forecast · 2030
$90.3bn
Basis
Claight Analysis
Market size (USD)
Base year 2025
Official data · Claight AnalysisForecast
Market size and CAGR extracted from the published Claight report; figures match the report..
Forecast
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2025 base: $73.5bn2032 est: $98.0bn
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Market size and forecast are Claight Analysis, informed by public research and industry data. Historical years before 2025 and all forecast years are Claight estimates at the stated CAGR. Retrieved 2026.