Spacecraft Thermal Control: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global spacecraft thermal control market sits at approximately USD 4.2 billion in 2025, growing at a 7.5% CAGR through 2032 toward a USD 6.9 billion end-state. The segment comprises three distinct hardware families, passive thermal control (MLI blankets, coatings, radiators), active thermal control (fluid loops, pumps, heat pipes), and thermal interface materials, each with different cost structures, qualification barriers, and supply-chain exposure. The primary feedstock for most structural thermal hardware is aluminum alloy plate (6061-T6), which trades in a USD 3,200-3,450 per metric tonne band across US, EU, and Asia in 2026-Q2. A 7.5% CAGR implies the market nearly doubles within a decade, a pace that looks aggressive against the mature satellite-constellation replacement cadence. We read the consensus as high because it conflates commercial megaconstellation expansion with deep

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