Renewable Diesel: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global renewable diesel market reached approximately USD 28.5 billion in 2025 (base year), held in a structurally tight balance between policy-anchored demand growth in California and the EU, feedstock-constrained supply, and the compounding effect of Section 301 tariffs and CBAM reporting on Chinese-origin HVO imports. The reference unit for cost modelling sits at USD 1,100 per metric ton of HVO at US Gulf Coast in 2025 economics, of which 72 percent is feedstock (used cooking oil, yellow grease, animal fats) tracked against published industry pricing benchmarks of USD 920/MT for US UCO spot in Q2 2026. The 2026-2032 forecast CAGR of 8.5 percent reflects the structural policy tailwinds from the US Renewable Fuel Standard, California LCFS, Oregon and Washington clean fuel programs, and EU RED III advanced biofuel mandates, all of which are ratcheting compliance floors upward faster t

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