Potash - Crude: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global potash market reached approximately USD 38.0 billion in 2025, representing a structurally tight commodity market where roughly 35-40 percent of traded Muriate of Potash (MOP) supply originates from Belarus and Russia. A reference granular MOP price band of USD 340-360/MT FOB Vancouver anchors the cost structure, while the 2026-2032 CAGR of roughly 4.2 percent reflects fertilizer demand growth in Asia and Latin America offsetting geopolitical supply constraints. The market's single most consequential near-term event is the BHP Jansen Stage 1 mine, targeting first production mid-2027 at approximately 4.15 Mtpa of Saskatchewan potash, which will materially re-rate the North American supply balance and potentially compress realized prices by 5-10 percent within three years of commissioning. > **Analyst Take.** The consensus reads potash as a boring, supply-steady commodity, and th

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