Paraffin Wax: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global paraffin wax market stands at USD 5.2 billion in 2025 (base year), characterized by a mature, feedstock-anchored structure dominated by candles and packaging applications. The category operates in a structurally tight balance between stable demand from traditional sectors and moderate growth in emerging applications, with slack wax co-product from petroleum refining serving as the primary feedstock. > **Analyst Take.** Our view: the 15% YoY decline in paraffin prices represents a structural reset rather than a temporary fluctuation. Buyers who anchor to current levels risk overpaying in 2027 as downstream demand normalizes. The key inflection point is Chinese-origin duty exposure - dual-region sourcing becomes non-negotiable for critical applications.

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