Nickel: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global nickel market reached approximately USD 35.0 billion in 2025 (base year) and we project it will grow to roughly USD 49.0 billion by 2032 at a 5.2 percent CAGR. The market is defined by extreme supply concentration -- Indonesia produces approximately 59 percent of global mine output, China refines roughly 28 percent of global supply, and the top-three producing nations control approximately 74 percent of volume. The LME 3-month nickel benchmark trades in a USD 16,500-18,500 per metric ton range in our base case, held in a structurally oversupplied position through at least H1 2026 as Indonesian laterite capacity additions outpace stainless steel and battery demand growth. The single most consequential regulatory development for buyers is the combination of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism carbon levy on ferronickel and unwrought nickel (effective 1 January 2026) and th

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