Lubricant Base Oils Group IV: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global Group IV polyalphaolefin base oil market sits at approximately USD 7.8 billion in 2025 (base year), growing at a 4.1% CAGR through 2032 to reach roughly USD 10.3 billion by the end of the forecast period. The reference SKU price for a metric tonne of Group IV PAO base oil sits at approximately USD 1,450, of which 62% is decene-1 (C10 linear alpha olefin) feedstock cost. The market is held in a structurally tight balance between limited PAO capacity additions, concentrated feedstock supply through the linear alpha olefin chain, and demand growth that is being reshaped by EV fluid specifications rather than displaced by them. > **Analyst Take.** The call is to lock indexed volume cover now and dual-origin qualification before Q3 2026. Buyers who model PAO as a crude-linked commodity will misprice the category: decene-1 tracks ethylene and linear alpha olefin economics, not Brent

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