Lamb - Carcass: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global lamb carcass category sits at approximately USD 34.5 billion in 2025 (base year), on a 2.5% volume-weighted CAGR through 2032, a deliberately modest number that reflects a mature, supply-constrained, replacement-driven market in which flock rebuilding cycles, drought risk, and trade policy swing year-on-year prices far more than they swing volumes. The category is in a structurally tight balance: the Australian ewe flock at 48.9 million head and New Zealand breeding flock at 23.6 million head are both down sharply on five-year averages, US lamb production is forecast at 145-150 thousand metric tons in 2026, and EU sheepmeat output has slipped to roughly 1.0 million tons carcass weight equivalent. Cutout values reflect that, USDA's National Lamb Carcass Cutout printed USD 1,047-1,170 per hundredweight for an 8-rib medium rack through 2025-2026, and the MLA Trade Lamb Indicator

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