Folding Cartons: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global folding cartons market sits at approximately USD 165 billion in 2025, held in a structurally tight balance between mature replacement demand in developed markets, accelerating e-commerce-grade packaging requirements, and a regulatory inflection in the EU that will reshape substrate specification through the latter half of the decade. A 4.5% CAGR through 2032 lands the market at roughly USD 225 billion by the end of the forecast period, but the composition of that growth matters more than the headline. Smurfit Westrock, formed by the July 2024 combination of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock, now controls a material share of North American cartonboard converting capacity and has re-set the competitive baseline for the category. > **Analyst Take.** The single most under-priced risk in this category is the PPWR recycled-content mandate effective 1 January 2030. Buyers who treat this as

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