Fertilizers - Potash (MOP/SOP): Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global potash market (MOP and SOP combined) sits at approximately USD 38.5 billion in 2025 (base year) on roughly 64 million tonnes of nutrient demand, held in a structurally balanced state between mature replacement-driven offtake in the Americas, accelerating SOP demand in water- and chloride-sensitive crops, and the gradual normalisation of Belarusian and Russian export volumes into previously displaced trade lanes. > **Analyst Take.** the consensus 5-6% potash CAGR looks aggressive against the demand ceiling from arable-hectare maturation in the Americas and the gradual, not sudden, displacement of Belarusian tonnes by Canadian and Russian brownfield. The right sequence is to lean into index-linked structures now, hold single-origin exposure below 45%, and pre-position for BHP Jansen's first full year (2027) as the next genuine re-rate event. A 6%+ CAGR would imply demand doublin

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