Diamonds - Gem: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global rough diamond market sits at approximately USD 17.0 billion in 2025 (base year), representing the upstream mining and production value of natural diamonds. The market operates under a structurally constrained supply regime, with five major producer groups controlling roughly 75% of global rough output and De Beers-led supply cuts having lifted benchmark prices 5-8% through Q2 2026. Lab-grown diamonds have captured approximately 13% of the gem diamond segment, but their impact on the rough market remains indirect, the two channels serve distinct buyer cohorts with limited substitution at the wholesale level. > **Analyst Take.** The call is to de-risk Botswana and Russia origin concentration before 2027, not after. Buyers who wait for the EU duty position to re-stabilise will find mid-tier producers already committed to long-term offtake agreements. The right sequence is: altern

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