Crude Oil - OPEC Basket: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global crude oil market assessed through the OPEC Reference Basket stood at approximately USD 2.1 trillion in 2025 (base year), underpinned by an OPEC Reference Basket price that has oscillated in the USD 70-80 per barrel range through mid-2025 and into 2026. The OPEC+ production unwind, beginning April 2025 with an initial 548,000 bpd increase across eight member countries and accelerating through subsequent monthly adjustments, has shifted the market from the structural tightness of 2023-2024 toward a more balanced, yet still fragile, equilibrium. Demand growth remains concentrated in Asia-Pacific, where petrochemical feedstock and transportation fuel consumption drive the majority of incremental volume, while the United Arab Emirates' departure from OPEC effective 1 May 2026 introduces a new geopolitical fault line into the supplier-coordination architecture that has anchored the

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