Bio-Naphtha: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global bio-naphtha market sits at approximately USD 4.2 billion in 2025 (base year), structurally anchored by HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) production economics where crude vegetable oil feedstock represents 55% of delivered cost [Claight estimate: derived from cost-model build-up]. Aviation fuel decarbonisation mandates drive 35% of demand, with petrochemical cracker substitution capturing the next 30% tranche. Reference pricing for the commodity tracks USD 850-950/MT FOB European and Asian hubs in early 2026, a 15-20% premium to fossil naphtha that reflects certification costs and feedstock price pass-through [Claight estimate: spot benchmark triangulation]. Feedstock concentration is the defining buyer constraint. Crude vegetable oil, predominantly palm, rapeseed, and used cooking oil, supplies 75-80% of HEFA naphtha production, creating a pass-through linkage that

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