Asphalt Shingles: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global asphalt shingles market sits at approximately USD 5.8 billion in 2025 (base year), anchored by North American residential replacement demand and a concentrated three-supplier duopoly that controls roughly half the market. The category faces a near-term demand contraction, U.S. shipments fell approximately 10% in Q3 2025 and a further 9.9% in Q1 2026, driven by feedstock cost passthrough and elevated mortgage rates suppressing new residential construction. Roofing-grade asphalt, the primary input, traded at USD 920 per metric tonne in the U.S. in Q2 2026, creating a cost structure where binder alone represents 45% of finished product cost. > **Analyst Take.** The call is to build dual-supplier optionality now while the demand environment softens. The GAF-CertainTeed-Owens Corning triad collectively holds roughly 50% of North American volume and uses that scale to pass through f

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