Palm kernel oil prices on the world market have demonstrated substantial appreciation over the past two decades. Starting from 630.8 $/mt in 2005, the commodity reached 2,363 $/mt by 2026, representing a total increase of 1,732 $/mt, or 274.7% over 21 years. This sustained upward trajectory corresponds to a compound annual growth rate of 6.5%. The price experienced notable volatility, with the lowest recorded level of 578.7 $/mt occurring in 2006 and the peak of 2,363 $/mt achieved in 2026. The most dramatic price movement occurred between 2020 and 2021, when values surged 86.0% from 824.2 $/mt to 1,533 $/mt, highlighting the commodity's susceptibility to sharp fluctuations within a longer-term appreciating trend.
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
We project a declining trajectory for palm kernel oil through 2030 as new production capacity comes online while demand growth moderates. The current elevated price near $2163/mt reflects temporary supply tightness and elevated shipping costs, but this is unsustainable given the substantial expansion of palm oil plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Global food manufacturers are actively seeking cheaper substitutes like rapeseed and soybean oils in response to palm's premium. Additionally, efficiency gains in extraction processes are reducing processing costs. While energy markets remain structurally supportive for agricultural commodities, palm kernel faces specific headwounds from its own supply growth dynamics. Our 2026 forecast anchors near the current level before a sustained decline through 2030 as the market rebalances. Most consensus views remain overly bullish, underestimating the magnitude of coming supply increases and demand substitution pressures.
Data table
| Year | $/mt |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 630.8 |
| 2006 | 578.7 |
| 2007 | 888.5 |
| 2008 | 1,125 |
| 2009 | 699.1 |
| 2010 | 1,188 |
| 2011 | 1,654 |
| 2012 | 1,107 |
| 2013 | 897.1 |
| 2014 | 1,120 |
| 2015 | 903.3 |
| 2016 | 1,301 |
| 2017 | 1,289 |
| 2018 | 926.4 |
| 2019 | 665.3 |
| 2020 | 824.2 |
| 2021 | 1,533 |
| 2022 | 1,617 |
| 2023 | 990.6 |
| 2024 | 1,412 |
| 2025 | 2,093 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.