Nickel prices experienced significant volatility between 2005 and 2026, starting at $14,744 per metric ton and reaching $17,729 per metric ton, representing a total increase of $2,985 (+20.2%) over the 21-year period. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 0.9%, reflecting periods of both expansion and contraction. The price range spanned from a low of $9,595 per metric ton in 2016 to a high of $37,230 per metric ton in 2007. Notably, the largest single-year movement occurred from 2005 to 2006, with prices increasing by 64.5% from $14,744 to $24,254 per metric ton, demonstrating the market's sensitivity to supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors during this timeframe.
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World Bank forecast OFFICIAL
The World Bank projects nickel at 17,000 $/mt in 2026 and 17,500 in 2027.
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight forecasts nickel prices below consensus for 2027-2030, expecting a gradual decline toward the 10-year average. The divergence reflects our view that the market will transition to structural oversupply. Indonesian production capacity, which has driven much of the recent supply growth, will continue expanding despite the export ban on unprocessed ore. Simultaneously, the electric vehicle market's shift toward low-nickel chemistries (LFP batteries) and rising scrap recycling rates will temper demand growth. While current prices near $17,588/mt reflect tightness from Indonesian ore restrictions, these measures are temporary. The market will rebalance as new projects come online, particularly in Indonesia and with high-pressure acid leach technology, creating a sustained supply surplus that will pressure prices below the World Bank's $17,500/mt 2027 forecast.
Data table
| Year | $/mt |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 14,744 |
| 2006 | 24,254 |
| 2007 | 37,230 |
| 2008 | 21,111 |
| 2009 | 14,655 |
| 2010 | 21,809 |
| 2011 | 22,910 |
| 2012 | 17,548 |
| 2013 | 15,032 |
| 2014 | 16,893 |
| 2015 | 11,863 |
| 2016 | 9,595 |
| 2017 | 10,410 |
| 2018 | 13,114 |
| 2019 | 13,914 |
| 2020 | 13,787 |
| 2021 | 18,465 |
| 2022 | 25,834 |
| 2023 | 21,521 |
| 2024 | 16,814 |
| 2025 | 15,162 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.