Nickel Ore: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global nickel ore market reached approximately USD 48 billion in 2025, held in a structurally divided state: stainless-steel feedstock faces a bearish overhang from Indonesian NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) capacity additions, while battery-grade nickel commands a structural premium driven by EV cathode chemistry requirements. LME nickel traded in a USD 16,500-18,500 per metric tonne band through the first half of 2026, well below the peaks that triggered the 2022-2024 supply rush, but Indonesia's dominance of mined output at 59-67% share and its 2020 export ban on raw ore concentrates supply-side risk in a way no other industrial mineral does. > **Analyst Take.** The consensus 5.8% CAGR implies market value doubling inside 13 years, which we regard as plausible but front-loaded. The upside case depends on EV battery demand accelerating faster than the 13% CAGR we have baked in, and on Indone

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