Groundnuts demonstrated significant price volatility over the 2005 to 2026 period, with global prices rising from 874.2 $/mt to 1,241 $/mt. This represents a total increase of 366.4 $/mt, equivalent to a 41.9% gain over 21 years and corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%. The market experienced substantial fluctuations throughout the period, with prices reaching a low of 874.2 $/mt at the start of the timeframe and peaking at 2,443 $/mt in 2012. The most dramatic shift occurred between 2010 and 2011, when prices surged by 51.8% from 1,241 $/mt to 1,884 $/mt. This marked the largest single movement in the series and highlights the inherent volatility that characterized groundnut pricing during this two decade span.
What This Tracks
The groundnut price index measures the market value of peanuts traded in international commerce, typically quoted for shelled groundnuts destined for food processing and oil extraction. It captures transactions across major commodity exchanges and spot markets, reflecting supply-demand dynamics for a crop that ranks among the top oilseeds globally. The price serves as a reference for farmers, traders, food manufacturers, and policymakers assessing market conditions.
- •Quotes are commonly expressed per metric ton of shelled groundnuts
- •Represents edible-grade and oil-grade varieties traded across regions
- •Influenced by futures markets and physical spot transactions
What Drives It
Groundnut prices respond primarily to agricultural supply conditions, with harvests in China, India, and West Africa commanding particular market attention. Crude vegetable oil demand, competing oilseed crops like soybeans and sunflower, and global trade flows also shape pricing dynamics. Currency fluctuations, particularly the U.S. dollar's strength, affect import costs and exporter competitiveness.
- •Monsoon rainfall and drought conditions in major producing nations
- •Planting area shifts driven by competing crop profitability
- •Export restrictions and import tariffs in key markets
Recent Trends
Groundnut markets have experienced notable volatility, with prices around 1,250 $/mt reflecting a combination of tighter supplies and robust food-sector demand. La Niña weather patterns have occasionally disrupted harvests in Southeast Asia and West Africa, while energy costs have influenced fertilizer expenses and farm-gate prices. The vegetable oil complex, linked to palm and soybean markets, has created spillover effects on groundnut valuations.
- •Current price levels represent a moderate recovery from earlier softness
- •Quality premiums have widened between food-grade and oil-grade shipments
- •Transportation and logistics constraints have periodically disrupted trade flows
Supply and Demand
Global groundnut production totals approximately 45-50 million metric tons annually in shell, with China and India accounting for over half of output. Rising incomes in developing economies have boosted edible consumption, while the oil extraction sector competes for supplies. Stocks held by major traders and government reserve releases also influence near-term availability and pricing pressure.
- •China and India dominate both production and domestic consumption
- •Sub-Saharan Africa exports significant volumes to processors worldwide
- •The United States serves as a premium supplier for confectionery markets
Outlook
Groundnut prices are expected to remain sensitive to weather developments during the upcoming planting and growing seasons in key producing regions. If La Niña conditions persist, yield uncertainty could support firmer pricing into mid-year. Conversely, bumper crops in India or improved West African output would likely ease supply concerns. Demand for plant-based proteins and sustainable cooking oils provides a constructive demand backdrop over the medium term.
- •Weather forecasting and agricultural policy changes warrant close monitoring
- •Growth in plant-based food markets offers long-term demand support
- •Trade policy shifts among major exporters could quickly rebalance supply flows
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Connect to an analyst →Price outlook to 2030
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight forecasts groundnuts will trend below consensus due to structural supply increases and emerging demand headwinds. Production capacity expansions in West Africa and South America are coming online, with several new high-yield varieties entering commercial cultivation. Meanwhile, health-conscious consumers are shifting toward plant-based alternatives, reducing groundnut consumption in developed markets. The 2025 price decline to 1351 from 2023's 1892 signals demand destruction after inflation-driven price spikes. Consensus likely underestimates the pace of new capacity while assuming demand recovery to pre-2023 levels. Inventories remain ample despite current drawdowns, suggesting prices need to fall significantly below 10-year averages to balance the market.
Data table
| Year | $/mt |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 874.3 |
| 2006 | 875.2 |
| 2007 | 1,248 |
| 2008 | 1,601 |
| 2009 | 1,130 |
| 2010 | 1,241 |
| 2011 | 1,884 |
| 2012 | 2,443 |
| 2013 | 1,514 |
| 2014 | 1,258 |
| 2015 | 1,305 |
| 2016 | 1,393 |
| 2017 | 1,487 |
| 2018 | 1,320 |
| 2019 | 1,338 |
| 2020 | 1,839 |
| 2021 | 1,555 |
| 2022 | 1,568 |
| 2023 | 1,892 |
| 2024 | 1,794 |
| 2025 | 1,351 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.