Groundnut oil prices on the global market have demonstrated meaningful appreciation over the twenty-one year period from 2005 to 2026, rising from 1,171 $/mt to 1,793 $/mt. This represents a total increase of 621.8 $/mt, equivalent to 53.1 percent growth with a compound annual growth rate of 2.0 percent. The price trajectory experienced substantial volatility during this timeframe, with values ranging from a low of 1,019 $/mt in 2006 to a peak of 2,359 $/mt in 2012. The most significant single-year movement occurred between 2007 and 2008, when prices surged 56.0 percent from 1,375 $/mt to 2,145 $/mt, highlighting the commodity's susceptibility to sharp periodic fluctuations within its broader upward trend.
What This Tracks
Groundnut oil price tracks the market valuation of oil extracted from peanuts, one of the world's oldest cultivated oilseeds. The $/mt metric reflects spot and futures trading activity across major commodity exchanges and physical markets. This index captures the intersection of agricultural output, food industry demand, and broader commodity market sentiment.
- •Traded as both physical cargo and futures contracts on commodity platforms
- •Often benchmarked against other edible oils like palm, soybean, and sunflower oil
- •Price quoted in US dollars to facilitate international trade comparison
What Drives It
Groundnut oil prices move primarily in response to changes in raw groundnut supply and global vegetable oil market dynamics. Weather conditions in major producing regions directly impact crop yields, while crude oil price fluctuations influence both input costs and competing biofuel demand. Currency movements, particularly the US dollar strength, also affect the relative competitiveness of groundnut oil in world markets.
- •Groundnut harvest volumes and quality in India, China, and West Africa
- •Price movements in competing oils that share end-use markets
- •Energy costs affecting processing, transportation, and farm input expenses
Recent Trends
Groundnut oil markets have experienced notable volatility tied to weather disruptions and shifting食用油 demand patterns. Rising food service and household cooking demand in populous nations has supported baseline prices, while competing palm oil supply uncertainties have periodically boosted groundnut oil's relative appeal. The current price level reflects a balance between adequate supply and robust global consumption.
- •Increased demand from South and Southeast Asian food industries
- •Substitution effects when palm or soybean oil prices spike
- •Seasonal price peaks typically around post-harvest periods
Supply and Demand
Global groundnut production centers on a handful of major producers, making supply relatively concentrated compared to other oilseeds. Demand is distributed more broadly, with heavy consumption in India and China driving much of the international trade flow. Groundnut oil holds a premium position in the edible oil complex due to its distinctive flavor profile, limiting direct substitution in certain culinary applications.
- •India and China together account for the majority of global groundnut output
- •Growing middle-class populations increasing demand for higher-quality cooking oils
- •Limited oil content per ton of peanuts compared to palm or rapeseed creates supply constraints
Outlook
Groundnut oil prices are expected to remain influenced by agricultural supply variables and competing oilseed market conditions. Climate patterns affecting major producing regions will continue to be a primary price driver, while demand growth in emerging markets may provide long-term support. Market participants will watch crude oil trajectories and palm oil supply developments as leading indicators for groundnut oil direction.
- •Climate resilience of groundnut crops in key growing regions remains a watchpoint
- •Potential for increased crushing capacity to affect processing margins
- •Trade flows may shift based on bilateral agricultural agreements between major producers and consumers
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Connect to an analyst →Price outlook to 2030
World Bank forecast OFFICIAL
The World Bank projects groundnut oil ** at 1,722 $/mt in 2026 and 1,740 in 2027.
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Groundnut oil prices are settling back toward a structural equilibrium anchored to pre-COVID norms, with limited reason for a sharp break either way. The 2021-2022 spike induced meaningful supply response: India and China expanded groundnut plantings and crush capacity, and with African output (Nigeria, Senegal) also ramping, aggregate supply is adequate-to-abundant heading into the late 2020s. On the demand side, groundnut oil faces relentless price competition from palm oil and soybean oil, both of which have been relatively well-supplied; substitution pressure caps any sustained upside in groundnut-specific demand, particularly in India's domestic edible oil market. Weather remains the primary near-term wildcard, but monsoon variability alone has not produced structurally higher price floors since 2020. Without a supply shock from a major growing region or a sustained shift in the palm-soy spread, prices are likely to drift gently lower from current levels, flattening near the five-year average of roughly $1,680 by 2029 before stabilising. The World Bank consensus of $1,722-$1,740 is therefore a reasonable baseline; Claight sees no compelling catalyst to deviate materially, so we return in line.
Data table
| Year | $/mt |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 1,171 |
| 2006 | 1,019 |
| 2007 | 1,375 |
| 2008 | 2,145 |
| 2009 | 1,353 |
| 2010 | 1,401 |
| 2011 | 1,866 |
| 2012 | 2,359 |
| 2013 | 1,821 |
| 2014 | 1,395 |
| 2015 | 1,378 |
| 2016 | 1,381 |
| 2017 | 1,461 |
| 2018 | 1,446 |
| 2019 | 1,407 |
| 2020 | 1,698 |
| 2021 | 2,075 |
| 2022 | 2,202 |
| 2023 | 2,035 |
| 2024 | 1,796 |
| 2025 | 1,666 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.