Fish Meal Price

Fish meal prices track the global market value of protein-rich meal derived from small marine fish species such as anchoveta, sardines, and mackerel. This commodity serves as a key input in formulated feeds for aquaculture species—particularly salmon, shrimp, and tilapia—as well as poultry and swine rations. The benchmark price reflects transactions from major producing regions, especially South American fisheries, and is sensitive to both harvest volumes and feed demand cycles.

• •Primarily sourced from Peruvian and Chilean anchoveta fisheries
• •Used in aquaculture feed formulations due to its essential amino acids and omega-3 content
• •Traded on commodity exchanges and through direct producer contracts

Fish meal prices are heavily influenced by oceanographic conditions, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which disrupts upwelling and fish migrations in the Pacific. Government-imposed catch quotas and seasonal fishing bans, especially in Peru—the world's largest producer—directly affect supply availability and pricing. Demand from the aquaculture industry, the largest consumer sector, moves prices based on farmed fish production volumes and feed formulation preferences.

• •El Niño events typically reduce Peruvian anchoveta catches by 30-50%
• •Aquaculture expansion, especially salmon farming, drives sustained demand growth
• •Soybean meal prices act as a substitute, creating price correlation across protein markets

Fish meal prices have risen substantially over the past several years, climbing from around $1,200–$1,500/mt in the early 2020s to the current level near $2,145/mt. This surge reflects consecutive years of below-average catches in key fishing grounds, compounded by stronger-than-expected demand from aquaculture operations. Price volatility has increased, with occasional sharp spikes following announcements of reduced catch quotas or unfavorable environmental conditions.

• •Prices have appreciated roughly 40-50% since 2021 amid supply constraints
• •Climate variability has caused irregular fishing seasons in the Pacific
• •Rising production costs—including energy and labor—have added upward pressure

Global fish meal production averages approximately 5–6 million metric tons annually, with Peru and Chile together accounting for over one-third of output. Meanwhile, China has emerged as both a major producer and the largest individual consumer, driven by its expansive aquaculture sector. Supply remains constrained by finite wild fish stocks and competing uses for small pelagic fish, while demand continues climbing as global seafood consumption rises and aquaculture production expands.

• •Peru's annual catch quota is set by the Ministry of Production based on biomass surveys
• •China's aquaculture industry consumes over 60% of global fish meal production
• •Fish oil and alternative protein sources (insect meal, algae) represent emerging substitutes

Fish meal prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term, supported by constrained supply and robust aquaculture sector growth. Climate adaptation measures, including improved stock management and traceability systems, may gradually support supply stability. The long-term trajectory will depend on whether aquaculture demand continues expanding faster than supply-side improvements and whether alternative protein sources gain meaningful market share in feed formulations.

• •Continued aquaculture growth in Southeast Asia and Latin America underpins demand
• •Weather patterns and ocean temperatures will remain key short-term price catalysts
• •Innovation in feed efficiency may gradually reduce fish meal inclusion rates over time