FAO Sugar Price Index

The index monitors international sugar quotations, principally raw and white sugar traded on major exchanges and in physical export markets. Values are rebased so that the 2014-2016 average equals 100, allowing comparisons of relative price levels across years and decades. It serves as a transparent reference for governments, traders, analysts, and producers tracking the global sugar economy.

• •Monthly indicator covering raw and refined white sugar in major export markets.
• •Base period 2014-2016 set at 100, so values above 100 indicate prices higher than that average.
• •Published by the FAO as part of its broader food commodity price monitoring work.

Sugar prices respond chiefly to the global production-consumption balance, which is heavily influenced by weather and crop conditions in the largest producers Brazil, India, Thailand, and the European Union. Linked markets matter: when ethanol or oil prices rise, Brazilian mills can divert more sugarcane to fuel, tightening sugar supply and pushing prices higher. Currency fluctuations, especially the Brazilian real, plus government policies such as Indian export restrictions and ethanol blending mandates, also shape the index.

• •Weather outcomes in Brazil, India, and Thailand are the dominant short-term drivers.
• •Brazilian ethanol parity and oil prices influence the cane allocation between sugar and fuel.
• •Macroeconomic factors including exchange rates, interest rates, and trade policy actions add further volatility.

Sugar prices surged in 2022-2023, peaking above 160, as unfavorable weather in India and Brazil along with tight global stocks pushed the index to multi-decade highs. Prices then declined sharply through 2024 as Indian production recovered with monsoon rains and as Brazilian output expanded. The recent reading near 89.7 reflects this easing, placing the index well below its 2014-2016 baseline and among the weaker levels of the past several years.

• •2022-2023 peak above 160 was driven by Indian weather setbacks and tight global inventories.
• •Prices fell through 2024 as Indian production recovered and Brazilian harvests expanded.
• •Current reading near 89.7 sits below the 2014-2016 baseline and indicates sustained market weakness.

Global sugar production and consumption are roughly balanced in the 180-190 million tonne range, leaving relatively small surplus or deficit swings capable of moving prices meaningfully. Brazil alone supplies around half of world sugar exports, giving its harvest and mill-mix decisions an outsized influence on market balances. Demand growth of roughly 1-2 percent per year is concentrated in Asia and Africa, where rising populations and incomes lift per-capita consumption.

• •Brazil accounts for roughly half of global sugar exports, making it the swing supplier.
• •Annual demand growth of about 1-2 percent is centered in Asia and Africa.
• •Even small production shortfalls or surpluses translate into outsized price movements.

Near-term price direction depends mainly on India's monsoon performance and its export policy decisions, along with how much sugarcane Brazilian mills allocate to ethanol versus sugar. A potential global surplus in 2025-2026 from improved Indian and Thai output suggests continued pressure on prices in the absence of weather shocks. Over the medium term, structural demand growth in developing markets combined with rising biofuel use provides underlying support for the sector.

• •Near term hinges on Indian monsoon outcomes and any export quota revisions.
• •Expected 2025-2026 surplus may keep prices subdued barring weather disruptions.
• •Longer-term demand from emerging markets and biofuel expansion offers support.