The FAO Food Price Index demonstrates substantial long-term appreciation from 2005 to 2025, increasing by 59.6 index points to reach 127.2. This represents an 88.1% rise over the twenty-year period, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 3.2%. The trajectory exhibits notable volatility, with the index reaching a peak of 144.5 in 2022 against the 2005 low of 67.6. The most significant single-year movement occurred between 2006 and 2007, when the index surged 29.8% from 72.9 to 94.6. The overall pattern reflects persistent upward momentum in global food prices despite intermediate fluctuations.
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
The Claight forecast extends fao food price index toward its 10-year average of 110.02 using partial mean reversion (22% per year), a neutral baseline. Global food prices track harvests, energy and freight costs and export policy; this is a baseline, not a point call.
Data table
| Year | index (2014-2016=100) |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 67.6 |
| 2006 | 72.9 |
| 2007 | 94.6 |
| 2008 | 117.7 |
| 2009 | 91.8 |
| 2010 | 106.9 |
| 2011 | 131.8 |
| 2012 | 122.8 |
| 2013 | 120.1 |
| 2014 | 115.0 |
| 2015 | 93.1 |
| 2016 | 92.0 |
| 2017 | 97.9 |
| 2018 | 95.7 |
| 2019 | 94.9 |
| 2020 | 98.1 |
| 2021 | 125.7 |
| 2022 | 144.5 |
| 2023 | 124.5 |
| 2024 | 122.0 |
| 2025 | 127.2 |
Source: FAO Food Price Index, accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.